Model predicted Italian scenario

It’s always a good idea to check the predictive value of a model by comparing it to new data. Numbers just came out showing the new virus is taxing Italy’s IC capacity by 23%. What did the model predict?


The numbers above show that the Italian health care system is under a lot of stress. Locally, in Lombardy, new coronavirus cases account for 66% of total ICU capacity. In all of Italy 23% of ICU beds are taken by COVID patients.

Modelling ICU capacity

On march 11th the model made the prediction above. Between the 13th and the 14th of march, the ICU capacity in Italy would be taxed around 20% by COVID patients. It’s a simple model, but virus spread is an essentially simple phenomenon. This shows that the model may have some predictive value.

How are other countries doing?

Iceland, Norway, Denmark and Switzerland are still heading to their hard limits at a fast pace. If this growth continues, their health care systems are going to be taxed to the max.

Other countries in immediate danger: Spain and the Netherlands. In the southern half of the Netherlands hospitals are already at max capacity. All staff is being recruited to treat COVID patients.

The situation is already pretty bad in a lot of places, but it can get worse. If ICU beds run out, the CFR shoots up. If drastic action does not come soon, it may be too late.

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